More than delegates at stake in Arizona, Michigan primaries

Fifty-nine delegates are up for grabs when both states vote Losing Michigan could seriously sting Romney's bid, pundits say Polls say Romney and Santorum are tied up in Michigan Detroit (CNN) -- In an election cycle that's seen more than its fair share of ups and downs, crucial primaries Tuesday in Arizona and especially Michigan could add a lot more drama to the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Fifty-nine delegates are up for grabs when both states vote. But much more than that, momentum that could alter the state of the race is at stake. "Mitt Romney's ferocious campaign against Santorum in Michigan is pivot point of the campaign," GOP strategist and CNN contributor Alex Castellanos said. Romney was born in Michigan and his father served as governor of the state in the 1960s. Many political pundits say losing the state could seriously sting Romney's bid for the nomination. var currExpandable="expand15"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='politics/2012/02/27/sot-santorum-michigan-rally.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120227113829-sot-santorum-michigan-rally-00000808-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand15Store=mObj; Santorum calls Romney 'a joke' var currExpandable="expand25"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/02/28/ac-kth-santorum-religion-college.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120228034940-ac-kth-santorum-religion-college-00011823-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand25Store=mObj; Santorum
's college and religion claims var currExpandable="expand35"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/02/28/bash-democrats-for-santorum.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120228034314-the-arizona-republican-presidential-debate-santorum-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand35Store=mObj; Democrats supporting Santorum? var currExpandable="expand45"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/02/27/exp-tsr-strategy-session-feb-27.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120227111233-exp-tsr-strategy-session-feb-27-00002001-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand45Store=mObj; Is Mitt Romney out of touch with voters? The most recent polls indicate it's all tied up in Michigan between the former Massachusetts governor and his top rival, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. The latest survey to suggest a dead heat: An American Research Group survey released Monday, which indicated that 36% of likely Michigan GOP primary voters were backing Santorum, with 35% supporting Romney, 15% backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and 8% supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Santorum's one point margin over Romney was well within the poll's survey. Polls from about two weeks ago indicated Santorum with the edge in Michigan. Both the top two candidates have been spending most of their time since Thursday in Michigan, but the message from the candidates and their campaigns couldn't be more different. "I'm planning on winning here in Michigan and also in Arizona," Romney said on Fox News Sunday. "Obviously that'll be huge for us if we're able to do that, particularly having come from so far behind here in Michigan." Santorum uses safer language when talking about the state, saying "if we win Michigan..." Castellanos says a Romney win in Michigan will greatly boost his campaign. "In Michigan, Romney has brought Santorum down from a double-digit lead to a few points in his wake. If Romney wins in Michigan, there will be no opponent left he hasn't defeated one-on-one. "In the year of the comeback, it may turn out that the king of the comebacks is Mitt Romney," added Castellanos, who was a top media adviser for Romney's 2008 nomination bid but who is not taking sides this cycle. Michigan and Arizona come four days before Washington state holds its contest on March 3, and comes one week before 10 states hold primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. "If Romney wins Michigan, he can suffer a few losses on Super Tuesday and still take the nomination," Castellanos said. var currExpandable="expand116"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/02/27/exp-nr-merrell-azpolitics.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120227063456-exp-nr-merrell-azpolitics-00002001-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand116Store=mObj; Romney, Santorum duel in the AZ desert var currExpandable="expand216"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/02/27/pkg-crowley-gop-knight-shining-armor.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120227024649-pkg-crowley-gop-knight-shining-armor-00004017-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand216Store=mObj; No 'knight in shining armor' for GOP var currExpandable="expand316"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='politics/2012/02/27/bts-mi-romney-santorum.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120227064621-bts-mi-romney-santorum-00004314-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand316Store=mObj; Santorum, Romney spar in Michigan var currExpandable="expand416"; if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);} var mObj={}; mObj.type='video'; mObj.contentId=''; mObj.source='politics/2012/02/27/point-granholm-michigan.cnn'; mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120227044919-point-granholm-michigan-00010112-story-body.jpg"; mObj.lgImageX=300; mObj.lgImageY=169; mObj.origImageX="214"; mObj.origImageY="120"; mObj.contentType='video'; CNN.expElements.expand416Store=mObj; Granholm: Romney 'pandering' on bailouts Another Republican operative took a different view. "My take is anyone trying to predict momentum this cycle has gotten it wrong," said Gentry Collins, a former political director for the Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association. "I think this race is less about momentum or knockout punches and more about a delegate fight. So, I think the narrative is this will be a contest for a while regardless of Michigan." "If Romney can win in Michigan, while presumably winning in Arizona, he continues to rack up delegates and stunt the ability of his challengers to be effective at the convention -- but his opponents will not have sustained a knockout blow either," added Collins, who steered Romney's campaign in Iowa four years ago but who is not backing a candidate this cycle. "National polling, state-based polling for March and April contests and the nagging issue that even with Romney restored as the frontrunner there is still room for a non-Romney candidate if one of these other guys could unify that vote are all issues that conspire to keep the race going," Collins said. "While a Romney loss in Michigan is a PR problem for the Romney camp, it doesn't fundamentally change much if any of the dynamic." John Brabender, one of Santorum's top advisers, has been downplaying expectations in the state since last week, pointing out that since the 30 delegates at stake in Michigan are proportional, a second-place finish with a decent delegate haul in the state where Romney was born is just as good as a win. The Romney campaign and an independent pro-Romney super PAC have flooded Michigan airwaves with ads, both positive and negative, greatly outspending the Santorum campaign and a super PAC that supports him. And the Santorum campaign sees that as a victory. "The Romney campaign is spending a fortune they never expected to spend in Michigan, and every dollar they spend in Michigan is a dollar they don't have on Super Tuesday," Branbender said Monday to CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby. Michigan's primary is an open one, meaning any registered voter regardless of party can participate. That's led to some shenanigans in which at least one strategist is trying to mobilize fellow Democrats to vote for Santorum in an effort to hurt Romney's longer-term efforts. "Democrats can get in there and cause havoc for Romney all the way to the Republican convention," Democratic strategist Joe DiSano said. "If we can help set that fire in Michigan, we have a responsibility to do so," he said. DiSano said he's a "lone wolf" in his effort and state Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer said the party is not actively encouraging cross-over voting, but Michigan Democrats have a history of doing so. Santorum's campaign is getting in on the act, too -- it's using robo calls to encourage Democrats to turn out to vote for Santorum. While Michigan is getting inundated with spots, Arizona's airwaves are less cluttered with campaign commercials. "The fact that we're seeing advertising action in Michigan, but not in Arizona is telling. Campaigns -- and groups -- advertise when it makes strategic sense and when they have the resources," said Kenneth Goldstein, CNN's consultant on TV advertising and president of Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), a company that tracks and estimates the costs of campaign ads running on the air. "It confirms most observers assessments from polling and fundraising reports. Michigan is the more competitive race of the two and that the campaigns have to triage their resources for what could be primary campaign that continues well beyond these late February contests," Goldstein added. While not getting the attention of Michigan, the candidates did all attend a CNN/Republican Party of Arizona GOP presidential debate Wednesday in Mesa. Both Romney and Santorum campaigned in the state around the debate. The most recent polls indicate Romney with a single-digit to a double-digit lead over Santorum, with Gingrich and Paul further behind. Since Arizona's 29 delegates are winner-take-all, neither Gingrich or Paul has spent much time in the state. Arizona's primary is a semi-open one, which means Republicans and independents can vote in it. Early voting in Arizona began February 2 and officials say about half of those eligible to vote in the primary will have already done so by Tuesday. For Gingrich, it's all about Super Tuesday and Georgia next week, which he represented in Congress for more two decades. "I want to focus on winning in Georgia. I think it is essential to us to do that and we are going to do everything we can between now and next Tuesday to win here at home," Gingrich said last weekend while campaigning in the state. But another major political event with Gingrich far from the spotlight will not benefit his bid for the nomination, one strategist said. "He was a non-starter in the Missouri-Minnesota-Colorado primary/caucuses, and he is a non-participant in Michigan and Arizona," said GOP political strategist Rich Galen, who ran Gingrich's press operation when he was speaker of the House and advised Fred Thompson's 2008 Republican presidential bid but is not taking sides this cycle. "He hasn't won a state since South Carolina and hasn't even been in the hunt since Florida. That is, there have been six primary election activities since Florida in which Newt hasn't even been in the conversation," Galen added. For Paul, the longtime congressman from Texas who's making his third bid for the White House, Arizona's an afterthought. Paul has campaigned briefly in Michigan, where he'd like to pick up some delegates on Tuesday, but mostly he's looking ahead to Washington state and the Super Tuesday caucuses, where he hopes to increase his delegate count. if(typeof CNN.expElements==='object'){CNN.expElements.init();} CNN's Jim Acosta, Dana Bash and Eric Marrapodi contributed to this report

More than delegates at stake in Arizona, Michigan primaries 2012-02-27T23:15:00-08:00 Rating: 4.5 Diposkan Oleh: Undercover 999